Cheap Gas = Cheap Flights

A barrel of oil rose all the way to $147. Gas was over $4 in most of America and the airline industry couldn't cope.

The economic crisis brought the price of oil down to under $70 to levels it hasn't seen in years. Some of the savings are being passed onto customers. Airtran has flights for as little as $49 each way. In addition Delta now has flights at a much lower cost than its competitors.

A majority of the discounts I've seen have been between Atlanta-New York-Chicago-DC, however it could extend into other areas. As people look to travel between Thanksgiving and Christmas it might be a good time to book your airfare before fares go up.

VW is America's Top Stock?

Volkwagen was shorted. This means that people feeling that the price should keep going down acquired shares in hopes that as the price goes down they can make the difference. It's one of the dirty little secrets of Wall Street.

This scenario usually works well, except when Porche secret adds onto their position and suprises Wall St. Now all the people that shorted the stock now have to buy the shares back to prevent themselves from losing a ton of money.

In turn the share prices goes up, and go up it has. VW is now worth almost half a trillion dollars in a time when GM and Chrysler are in talks to merge and have asked the government for $10 billion dollars to do it. In a time when Ford is leaking billions and selling companies left and right to help stay afloat.

Volkwagen is officially the pride of America in a sick twist of capitalism. After all, VW is looking to open a factory here in the states.

Wachovia Posts Largest Loss For A Bank..Ever

A billion dollars is a lot of money. Ten billions dollars is a huge sum of money. At 20 billion dollars, you're talking about an amount that few can concieve.

When you hear that a company lost almost $24 billion dollars it sends shivers through your spine. It makes you cringe in just thinking about all that money flying out of the window. It is ever worst when the company losing all of that money is a bank. Wachovia is the record setter of dubious distinction.

Wells Fargo anticipated the loss and is still fine with proceeding to close on the purchase of the troubled bank.

My fellow Americans

The intent of this blog is finance. Politics isn't something worth going into especially when there are sites like Politico, Drudge Report, and Huffington Post all covering the 2008 election. This point was even more true after blogging about one of the Presidential debates.

Alas, with only a few days left it is fitting to something even if no one reads this point.

Dear McCain,

It is incredibly disheartening to see how you've run your campaign or rather had your campaign run for you. At first, the idea of two politicians talking directly to the American people sounded great but something disturbing happened. Along the way the message fell off course. This is very plain and clear when anyone could ever say that there is more than one America. bThousands of people have and are fighting, sacrificing their life on the premise that this is one nation. There is no pro-America and anti-America.

Everyone is feeling the pinch from the boardrooms to the janitorial staff. No one is exempted from the perils taking place on Wall St and the impact it's having on Main St. To even make the mention or hint at it puts a foul stench in the air. It isn't right, and you know it. There are limits to everything and when you crossed it there was no turning back.

For that reason, Mr. McCain, you should do the nation a favor and gracefully bow out. After unsuccessfully running before you realize this isn't about failure. There is an integrity to the role of President of the United States which your words have compromised.

How will you tell someone's children that they aren't able to be President because using fear and scare tactics was better than using the truth? Yes Mr McCain, there is a difference between facts and the truth. How do you tell someone that they are anti-American when they work two or three jobs to feed their family? That the sacrifice they make to give their children a better life isn't good enough when your own family has over and above the means to afford a lavish lifestyle.

Being President isn't a hobby. Please consider this as you continue on this campaign.

-An American

Why You Should Be Shorting Apple (AAPL)

This isn't for the faint of heart and definitely isn't for the people that are brand new to investing. If you've already had your toes in the water, shorting is an idea you may already be familiar with.

Why Apple?

There are a lot of rumors on the web that have the company rolling out new computers at rock bottom prices. This will have an impact on margins which investors won't like. The stock has been up lately despite the economic conditions. There's no way it's going to stay like that if the rumors are true.

TVLamps.biz needs your help

With the economy the way that it is, being able to buy things at the best price and researching to find the most relevant information is really important.

Because of this, tvlamps.biz was created.

McCain Chances Fall Below 30% For First Time

It was bound to happen. People were watching the debates, and realize the seemingly inevitable. The Resmuglicans will have to wait until 2016 to make a run for the White House.

John McCain has the money......and the houses....and the cars, but alas, that doesn't make up for the lack of support. With 5 weeks to go, the people have spoken and soon enough they'll be able to cast their votes and make it known.

If McCain were really smart (or had halfway decent advisors) he'd start posturing for a Cabinet position.

It isn't over. At all. We can't just think things will get on their own. Cast your vote, and ram change down their throat!

How To Watch The Debate

There are several places where you can watch the debate live and find conversation online about it all going on. Here are a few:

http://www.clusterstock.com/2008/10/live-the-presidential-debate [Clusterstock]
http://jezebel.com/5060350/liveblogging-the-town-hall-presidential-debate [Jezebel]
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/08/05/presidential-debate-moder_n_117048.html [HuffPo]
http://gizmodo.com/5060155/where-to-watch-tonights-presidental-debate-live-online-hulu-vcast-and-more [Gizmodo]

Why John McCain Lost Tuesday's Debate

In retrospect, it must have seemed like a great idea for Sen. McCain to take digs at Sen. Obama but in doing so he lowered himself to the same level he claimed Obama was holding himself to.

With only but so many weeks left in the campaign, the idea of the October 7th debate was to show how each candidate differents from the other. What ended up happening was a playground full of mud slinging initiated and continued. When he wasn't doing that, he used fluffy speech to compliment the American people like his persistent use of "my friends."

Sadly, most of the American public would never be able to be the friend of someone like John McCain. Sadly, when you hear his using his terms of endearment it more like he's talking around us showing his chlorine bleached teeth hoping that you won't see his tail slither from the back of his suit.

Obama, seeing McCain on the ropes ignored to knock him out. Instead he used his time to elaborate and drown his own talking points. Ultimately McCain sealed his own fate because his attempt to talk to the American people was more like a great-grandfather talking at a young child.

Alls Wells That Ends Wells

Wells Fargo, that is. The company presented an offer to rival financial giant Wachovia to buy them in an all stock deal. This has sent the stock of Wachovia soaring in early trading since this deal is not a bank bailout.

The tight credit markets probably dictate why this deal was done as all stock instead of using cash that all banks need to show on their balance sheets these days. You should expect the deal to close by mid year 09, and Wells Fargo believes this will immediately add money to their bottom line after the deal is done.

You can read more about it here: http://www.clusterstock.com/2008/10/live-the-wachovia-wells-fargo-merger-call

Insurance Co. Hartford Financial Next On Chopping Block

Financial companies all around the country have been going down like someone sunk their battleship. First it was the banks, now word is spreading that insurance companies are next.

Many are familiar with AIG and the 85 million dollars they were given. The question is if other insurance companies will end up on the hook as chips fall all around Wall St.

If an insurance company is going to fall, it looks like Hartford Financial (HIG) may be next. Ever since the beginning of the week, investors have been hammering the company. Essentially removing almost half of it's stock value over the course of the week. Even today, it was brought down another 32%. The problems appear to be creeping up all over the spectrum.

There have been no announcements about what could be going on at the company, but with hedge funds upset about their returns shorting and hedging in other ways have been their bright spot.

Dear America

It's a sad state, and if you want someone to blame - you should go find a mirror. You wanted everything easier, cheaper, and free-er. And this is where we are. People can either barely afford their mortgage or are buying $20 million dollar condos. The middle class is shrinking, and the quicksand is hard to get out of. This isn't about complaining or whining, it's about doing something to fix it. You've wanted someone else to do the dirty work, to do the thinking and the deciding and this is what's going on.

Even the idea of giving away $700B (yes, billion with a B) isn't enough to keep things afloat. America has become the cheap whore of the world getting into bed financially with any country no matter where it's been. China? Russia? Who would have ever thought.

If you're upset, you should be. You should be so upset that for once you actually care enough to do something. You should be so upset at what's going on now that you decide to make sure that no one is going to take away your right to vote. It doesn't matter who you vote for, but if you think that you're going to be able to sit there on the sidelines and no contribute and say that everyone else is impacted but you, you're wrong.

You're real wrong, and don't let me find out. I'll come right to your home, and you can explain to me in person why you think it's so great that you don't care enough to vote.

Do you know how many people died and are dying even as I write this to make sure that you have the right? Do you even care? If you don't, you should find the parent of a soldier who was killed during battle and tell them that and see if that doesn't change your perspective.

All the tough talk in the world about "USA #1" and what does it mean? It isn't enough to just say it if when something can be done to make things better you just sit there and think no action will bring a positive result.

Most states have a deadline of October 4th to register. If you have no intentions of registering you should get on a boat or a plane and head to Canada, head to Spain - go anywhere but don't stay here. There are too many people that have been waiting decades for the ability to vote. You leaving just might be the thing this country needs to start making a better way.

For the rest of you, I hope to hear stories about how good it felt to cast your vote at the polls.

-Your Conscience

Shorts Says Down Has Further Down To Go

The Dow sucks. It sucks more than a Dyson vacuum cleaner (Eureka!)

By looking at the stocks that established new 52-week highs, there's a lot of confidence that the economy will continue it's downward spiral.

The Dow was down almost 3.5% and that's AFTER the Senate approved the "bailout."

$700 Billion dollars and Wall St. still isn't excited. This tells me that even if it were $10 Trillion, it wouldn't make people feel like the worst is over.

Great Words From Toll Bros

At 67, Toll is old enough to step aside and let others handle unpleasant times, but instead he approaches the wreckage with grim cheer. “It’s five times I’ve seen this movie,” he says. And the plot is always the same: Market drops, market recovers, home values rise again. Toll, having snapped up property at bargain-basement prices from wiped-out competitors, comes out stronger, richer, and better positioned. His plan is to do that again—and he thinks he has amassed the cash reserves to accomplish it. If all of Toll’s previous experience has offered a single lesson, it’s that the truly big money is made at the bottom, when other people are scared to buy. If he bets right again this time, he could lead his industry out of the doldrums. If he doesn’t, it augurs poorly for the entire sector—and perhaps indicates that the housing situation is even more dire than Toll imagined.

Source: Portfolio.com

The Shorts Were Right About Agro Stocks

It's hard to tell if it's insider trading or just really smart investing but consider the following:

Two days ago we wrote about AGA, a stock that shorts agriculture stocks reaching a 52-week high. Now that Mosaic has announced earning, they were right to send AGA higher as it missed sending shockwaves through other agro stocks.

As of 9:36am:

Potash stocks are being battered after Mosiac (MOS) missed FQ1 earnings estimates yesterday. MOS -27%. POT -19%. IPI -25%. MON -19%. TRA -19%. AGU -14%.

Source: Seekingalpha.com

Back to Mosaic:

The company's shares plummeted more than 17 percent to $55.45 in trading
after the closing bell as earnings fell short of Wall Street's
expectations.

"It (earnings) met our expectations, but some analysts had different
calculations I suppose. We're very pleased with the results that we posted,"
said Jim Prokopanko, in an interview with Reuters.

The company warned it plans to sharply reduce phosphate production over
the next several months, due to high inventory levels.

However, Mosaic noted that global potash market conditions continue to
remain tight, due to healthy demand and low inventory levels.

Net income in the quarter ended Aug 31 was $1.18 billion, or $2.65 a
share, up from a year-ago's profit of $305.5 million, or 69 cents a share.

Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN0153079020081002

Stay tuned for more updates and coverage. We're glad to have been able to call this one before other places on the web.

Why The Bailout Won't Help

What we're experiencing, sadly, is only the beginning. The bailout might help the banks, but will it help the companies that banked on the currency exchange to squeak out a thin profit? Or help the companies hoping that European/Chinese expansion would help them grow? Or help companies buy other companies in the wake of funding being harder to come by and rates increasing?

No.

This is just a small patch, in a big whole of the innertube called the Global Economy.
Foreclosures are not a global phenomeon, and so will the resulting increases in interest rates for HELOC, credit cards, auto/student loans which will add a burden to a middle class already on the cusp of breaking down.

I'm not calling a bottom, or a depression, but this rush to fix a problem is only looking at the part that has been the most publicized. What about people who are losing their homes and saving dues to the outrages increases in health care? Will they get a bailout? If no one is considering these scenarios than we've only reached the surface.

Closer to the bottom there will be more "prime" Americans failing to repay their debt further skewing what "subprime" actually means.

This isn't fear mongering, but the last thing anyone needs is a false sense of order and control when chaos surrounds from all corners.